a16z General Partners David Haber, Alex Rampell, and Erik Torenberg discuss why 19 out of 20 AI startups building the same thing will die - and why the survivor might charge $20,000 for what used to cost $20. They expose the "janitorial services paradox" (why the most boring software is most defensible), explain why OpenAI won't compete with your orthodontic clinic software despite having 800 million weekly users, and reveal how non-lawyers are building the most successful legal AI companies. Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro 1:12 - Do moats still matter? 2:42 - Data network effects only work at mega scale 5:01 - The ankle biter problem 5:48 - Are incumbents more or less defensible? 7:14 - Will companies vibe code their own Zendesk? 8:48 - Why you won't vibe code Microsoft 10:09 - The Goldilocks zone of pricing 11:21 - Greenfield strategy 13:32 - Which software gets cut first 16:22 - Steel man: Brand and velocity as moats 17:44 - "Context is King" 19:58 - Feature vs. product vs. company 21:47 - Will OpenAI build everything? 24:04 - Steve Jobs told Drew Houston Dropbox was a feature 27:05 - Platform risk: Will they compete or tax you? 30:06 - The "gold bricks" conversation with Dan Rose 33:38 - What OpenAI should prioritize 35:26 - Will AI consolidate to winner-take-most? 39:16 - Why Dropbox survived anyway 43:48 - The messy inbox wedge strategy 44:06 - Why AI is different: It's consensus 48:18 - Jobs won't disappear—$1 tasks will explode 49:30 - The Uber/taxi lesson for AI If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to like, subscribe, and share with your friends! Follow David on X: https://x.com/dhaber Follow Alex on X: https://x.com/arampell Follow Erik on X: https://x.com/eriktorenberg Follow a16z on X: https://x.com/a16z Follow a16z on LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX Listen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a16z-podcast/id842818711 Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see http://a16z.com/disclosures.