📰 Subscribe to UnHerd today at: https://bit.ly/4cfaeH0 UnHerd's Freddie Sayers meets Professor Robert Pape. Watch it on the UnHerd website: https://unherd.com/watch-listen/is-iran-actually-winning-the-war/ Listen to the podcast: https://plnk.to/unherd?to=page Advertise on UnHerd @ zoe.white@unherd.com UnHerd's Freddie Sayers speaks with Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, Robert Pape, to discuss the high-stakes ‘escalation trap’ unfolding between the United States and Iran - breaking down the tactical successes and failures of the US military campaign and analysing how Iran is leveraging its geographical position and control of the Strait of Hormuz through low-cost drone and missile harassment. As Professor Pape draws comparisons to the Vietnam War and 1973 oil crisis, has the Trump administration lost control of the conflict's trajectory, and are we moving toward a dangerous ground power dilemma that threatens the global economy and the stability of the Western alliance? Follow UnHerd on social media: Twitter: https://twitter.com/unherd Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/unherd/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/unherd/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@unherdtv //TIMECODES// 00:00 - 00:33 - Intro 00:33 - 01:34 - Introducing Prof Robert Pape 01:13 - 03:56 - Iran’s power and control of Hormuz 03:56 - 08:17 - Stages of escalation: from smart bombs to ground dilemma 08:17 - 11:10 - How this war could end for Trump 11:10 - 12:43 - Case for US hard‑power success 12:43 - 17:18 - Body‑count fallacy and asymmetric costs 17:18 - 22:06 - Sanctions, oil dependence, and regime survival 22:06 - 27:37 - Can the world adjust away from Hormuz? 27:37 - 31:11 - Trump’s attention span and the “illusion of control” 31:11 - 34:09 - Beyond 1973 – drones, nukes, terrorism, and wrap‑up #UnHerd #Iran #Israel