Today's conversation is an extremely enlightened and highly detailed one, that you may want to return to, in order to accrue all of its value. We host John Cochrane, an economist specializing in financial economics and macroeconomics. John has a popular blog and podcast called The Grumpy Economist and also hosts the GoodFellows Podcast. He is a Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and a senior fellow at Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and was a Professor at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. In this fascinating chat, John shares so much of his expertise, going in-depth on the subjects that we and our audience are constantly exploring and excited about. We discuss long-horizon stocks, market inefficiency and return predictability, classic portfolio theory, risk-less assets, and performance evaluation. John also shares his perspectives on the future of centralized finances, digital and cryptocurrencies, and where the business of financial advice is headed. So for all this and more from a leader in his field, be sure to join us for this great episode of the Rational Reminder. Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome John Cochrane! 2:14 Is the volatility in valuation ratios, like dividends to price due to changes in discount rates, or changes in expected cash flows? 6:15 Return predictability 16:10 Expected return for financial planning purposes 24:39 Predictability changes classic portfolio theory? 27:00 Volatility in portfolios 33:20 Being enlightened by John Campbell’s paper 40:07 How does this whole framework change performance evaluation? 44:38 Wealth and inequality 48:50 The general equilibrium concept 1:07:43 Where the role of financial advice going forward 1:12:56 The fiscal theory and how it changes monetary theory 1:21:05 Will digital currencies, like Bitcoin, will maintain their value in the long run? 1:30:10 Gene Fama and How do you define success in your life? Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/ Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/ Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore John Cochrane — https://www.johnhcochrane.com/ John Cochrane on Twitter — https://twitter.com/johnhcochrane The Grumpy Economist — https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/ 'Portfolios for Long-Term Investors' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3790823 'A Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy with Partially-Repaid Long-Term Debt' — https://www.johnhcochrane.com/research-all/a-fiscal-theory-of-monetary-policy-with-partially-repaid-long-term-debt?rq=fiscal%20theory Ken French 'Current Research Returns' — https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html