Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commissioner, how code-switching as a gay man of his cohort can translate to success, and defying the odds by quitting his first job to play online poker. Nate and Dax talk about learning statistical models as a hobbyist because academics don’t have the street smarts, the phenomenon of sore winners in tech, and the adage that the more shabbily you show up for your first meeting the more trustworthy you are. Nate explains that the dopamine felt especially by men during a winning streak is effectively a narcotic, how figures like Sam Bankman-Fried are kind of degenerate gamblers at heart, and why the new alpha move in industry is just to trust your gut. Watch Armchair Expert episodes: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzPEuwClyOzDdlrAmU-IwKncG87qrF7Vw Follow Armchair Expert on social: https://www.instagram.com/armchairexppod https://www.facebook.com/ArmchairExpPod/ https://twitter.com/armchairexppod Connect with Wondery https://wondery.com/shows/armchair-expert-with-dax-shepard/ https://www.facebook.com/WonderyMedia https://twitter.com/WonderyMedia https://www.instagram.com/WonderyMedia https://www.tiktok.com/@wonderymedia About the Show: Hi, I’m Dax Shepard, and I love talking to people. I am endlessly fascinated by the messiness of being human, and I find people who are vulnerable and honest about their struggles and shortcomings to be incredibly sexy. I invite you to join me as I explore other people’s stories. We will celebrate, above all, the challenges and setbacks that ultimately lead to growth and betterment. What qualifies me for such an endeavor? More than a decade of sobriety, a degree in Anthropology and four years of improv training. I will attempt to discover human “truths” without any laboratory work, clinical trials or data collection. I will be, in the great tradition of 16th-century scientists, an Armchair Expert. Watch Armchair Expert every MONDAY, WEDNESDAY, and FRIDAY here on Youtube! Listen to episodes ad-free by joining Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Start your free trial by visiting https://wondery.com/shows/armchair-expert-with-dax-shepard/ Chapters: 0:00 – Intro 1:06 – Interview with Nate Silver 1:21:00 – Fact Check #armchairexpert #daxshepard #natesilver